PUBLIC TIMELINE / SIMULATIONGuest creator · seed 482719
1500—2000 · STORY MODE
An Uncolonized Philippine Archipelago
“the Philippines were never colonized?”
OUTCOME / 2000
The compact can become a durable coastal federation if it proves fair, but aggressive collection or ambiguous boundaries could turn commercial cooperation into a struggle over local sovereignty.
E / ELSEWHEN SPECULATIVE SIMULATION
DIVERGENCE100%New world trajectory
DEFINING DECISIONS0Choices permanently recorded
STATE HASHd3522badReproducible record
BRANCHES22 comparable runs
YOUR WORLD IN ONE VIEW
Manila Bay Rulers Place Two Landing Grounds Under Compact Custody
The compact can become a durable coastal federation if it proves fair, but aggressive collection or ambiguous boundaries could turn commercial cooperation into a struggle over local sovereignty.
SAME PREMISE · SAME SEED
Different worlds from the same starting point.
Compare where identical initial conditions split. The changed decisions and consequences—not a new random seed—explain the difference.
1500 / ORIGIN2000 / ELSEWHEN
prosperity340.0
approval540.0
stability85+1.4
education290.0
trade99+1.8
risk59+1.6
The defining record
The moments that made history split.
1879
01 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Compact Establishes a Joint Court for Coastal Trade
By the late 1850s, the two autonomous landing districts create a joint appeals court for customs disputes, giving merchants a shared legal venue while neighboring rulers preserve authority over inland land, family, and market law.
risk · An early shiftThe threat of conflict recededstability · A visible changeInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
82% plausible1896
02 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Court Extends Compact Authority Along Two Waterfront Strips
The joint court settles boundary petitions from adjacent landing communities, formally recognizing two narrow waterfront strips as compact-administered districts while inland barangay courts retain land, family, and market law.
approval · An early shiftPublic trust grewrisk · An early shiftThe threat of conflict recededstability · A visible changeInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
78% plausible1913
03 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Compact Registers Its First Shared Waterfront Census
In 1896, the joint court orders a shared register of warehouses, ferries, and dues across the two waterfront strips, giving the compact practical authority while inland courts resist broader jurisdiction.
approval · An early shiftPublic trust grewrisk · An early shiftViolence became more likelystability · A visible changeInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
84% plausible1948
04 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Compact Converts Waterfront Custody into Recognized Autonomy
The joint court and neighboring barangay courts ratify narrow legal boundaries for the two waterfront strips, granting the compact durable authority over dues and access while leaving inland taxation and customary law untouched.
risk · A visible changeViolence became more likelystability · A visible changeInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
88% plausible1965
05 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Compact Takes Legal Custody of Two Waterfront Strips
In 1949, the joint court records the two waterfront strips as compact-administered jurisdictions after boundary disputes persist, while inland barangay courts retain taxation, family law, and customary authority.
risk · A visible changeViolence became more likelystability · A visible changeInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
88% plausible1982
06 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Compact Secures Two Ferry Corridors Under Shared Law
In 1965, the Manila Bay joint court and neighboring barangay courts recognize two ferry corridors as compact-administered approaches, extending predictable dues collection while inland communities preserve their own courts and taxes.
risk · A visible changeViolence became more likelystability · An early shiftInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
82% plausible2000
07 · INSTITUTIONS
Manila Bay Compact Becomes the Archipelago’s First Durable Shared Port Authority
In 1982, the Manila Bay joint court converts its two legally recognized ferry corridors into a permanent shared port authority, securing commercial rules while neighboring barangay courts retain inland taxation and customary law.
risk · A visible changeViolence became more likelystability · A visible changeInstitutions gained controltrade · A visible changeGoods and influence moved more freely
WHAT REMAINS UNRESOLVED
Commercial alignment versus local autonomy
88% plausibleSame past.
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